The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues, however components of the US are already reopening some workplaces and companies. That implies that the problem of a “second wave” of coronavirus circumstances is one we have been listening to a lot about. What’s taking place, defined Stanford infectious-disease physician Dean Winslow, MD, is that case counts are leveling off in sure components of the nation, notably in locations that put social distancing management measures in place early just like the Northeast. “The priority is that if we chill out these measures too quickly, what we would see is a second wave within the fall,” he advised CelebrityPie. CDC Director Robert Redfield, MD, has confirmed that this is a possibility.
Why the autumn? A quantity of causes, based on Dr. Winslow.
- Flu-like diseases are usually seasonal. “Most of the time, seasonal flu lasts one season,” Dr. Winslow stated. “You begin seeing circumstances in October, November, after which by March, April, early Could, the quantity of circumstances of seasonal flu is dramatically decreased.”
- An analogous sample has occurred in previous pandemics. Within the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic, case counts “declined very considerably in the summertime of 1918,” Dr. Winslow stated. However within the fall, a second wave of the outbreak proved even deadlier, exacerbated by displacement and overcrowding after the the top of World Battle I.
- We keep inside extra through the fall and winter. The virus spreads most simply in shut, indoor areas.
- Faculties may reopen. If faculty resumes within the fall, the virus is more likely to unfold in school rooms and houses, with college students probably transmitting it to their households.
Regardless of these speculations, that summer season lower in case numbers by no means materialized within the US, not less than not in a nationwide method. Areas just like the Northeast have improved after a troublesome spring, however different areas, just like the South and Midwest, have solely seen their case numbers rise by way of the summer season. (This is extra on why the coronavirus continued to unfold through the summer season.)
That being stated, there’s nonetheless potential for a second wave, each in locations which have been in a position to reopen and in areas which have worsened. It is unclear whether or not a potential second outbreak might be extra lethal than the preliminary one, Dr. Winslow stated, however there are a few methods to work the chances in our favor.
At first, as states proceed their makes an attempt to reopen, Dr. Winslow stated it is a good thought to proceed following some precautionary measures. “We should need everybody to put on fabric face masks whereas they’re out in public,” he stated, particularly when it is unattainable to keep up six toes of house between people. (This is the place to purchase a cloth face masks and how one can make your individual.) You also needs to proceed washing your palms ceaselessly, with cleaning soap and for not less than 20 seconds.
Wanting extra broadly, Dr. Winslow added that giant gatherings (assume main spectator sports activities occasions or concert events) must maintain off on resuming. “We’ll need to begin reopening slowly, and hold not less than some of the opposite restrictions in place whereas we do it,” Dr. Winslow stated. These pointers are much more vital contemplating the looming chance of a “twindemic” — the overlapping of COVID-19 with flu season within the winter.
Maintain these suggestions in thoughts, but additionally keep in mind to observe and keep updated along with your native social distancing pointers. Complying with that protocol is one of the best ways to stem the continued pandemic as we head into the autumn.
CelebrityPie goals to provide the most correct and up-to-date details about the coronavirus, however particulars and suggestions about this pandemic could have modified since publication. For the most recent info on COVID-19, please take a look at assets from the WHO, CDC, and local public health departments.